The economic consequences of leaving the EU

19 July 2016

The UK leaving the EU could potentially disrupt trade relationships with our most important and nearest trading partner and has already created uncertainty for financial markets and business in general.

There are two schools of thought as to how best the UK may withdraw with most businesses in the UK keen to keep a close and positive relationship with the EU even if we are not a full member.  That could be done by remaining a member of the European Economic Area, or by securing our own specific trade relationship like Switzerland – though this second route is likely to take much longer and be more difficult to negotiate.

Both routes provide their own separate pros and cons however with the EU keen to remain a viable construction, negotiating a deal favourable to the UK may be more difficult than it first seems.  It is clearly not in the EU’s best interests to have the UK succeed as an independent economy having left the EU.  As a result many key players from the European Union are calling for the body to take a hardline stance when the UK enters negotiations to withdraw, which could have difficult consequences for our economy.  Conversely there are enough voices in the European parliament who still recognise London and the UK’s economic clout.

Essentially the UK withdrawal will boil down to how the EU balance these conflicting arguments, leaving the United Kingdom’s economic future resting heavily on those who choose to invoke Article 50.

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